prediction
Senator Obama will win the Democratic nomination. No clue as to whom he will pick as a running mate.
Senator McCain will will win the Republican nomination, and pick Senator Lieberman as his running mate. That Senator Lieberman is a de facto Republican (and has been since at least 2004) will not stop the bobble heads in our political media from praising the Senators for "reaching across the aisle." This will challenge any advantage Senator Obama might have regarding his theme of unity and bipartisanship, making it a tight race that I think Senator McCain will win (not saying I'll vote for him, just that he'll probably win). But that's not necessarily the end of the world. Here's why:
President Bush, by his own admission, has been treading water in Iraq. The surge was designed to calm things down in Baghdad long enough that the Decider could pass his fuck-up on to the next administration, who will have their hands full figuring out how to clean up the mess. Just like Lyndon Johnson's war became Richard Nixon's in 1968, this war will become the next President's.
At the same time, the Administration (with the help of the Federal Reserve) has been playing a game of field position with the economy in an attempt to punt the coming recession into 2009.
If it's Senator Obama's job to clean this up starting in 2009, it likely means four-years-and-out for the Democrats as the Republicans sweep back into the White House and Congress by blaming Democrats for a Republican mess. And don't count on the political press to look back farther than four years (that is, unless Bill Clinton's dick is involved). This will be even more likely if the Democrats fail to increase their razor-thin majorities in Congress, as the Republicans will obstruct any and all meaningful legislation.
On the other hand, if Senator McCain rides a bipartisan promise to the White House, he inherits this mess with what will probably be a Democratic Congress. If, by some miracle, this mess is all cleaned up by 2012, McCain runs again and wins. The Democrats in Congress will share in this success and hold on to at least one house. If this mess is not be cleaned up by 2012, the Democratic candidate for president runs on McCain's failures, and probably wins.
Plus, as Dan Savage pointed out yesterday on Slog, a President McCain has every reason to just sit back and watch as a Democratic Congress investigates the hell out of the last seven years of misrule. I'm sure I'm not the only person who would frame Dick Cheney's mug shot and hang it over the mantle. Too bad he'll probably flee to Dubai once he's out of office.
But, whatever. I could be wrong. I'm just some chump with access to the internets, after all.
Senator McCain will will win the Republican nomination, and pick Senator Lieberman as his running mate. That Senator Lieberman is a de facto Republican (and has been since at least 2004) will not stop the bobble heads in our political media from praising the Senators for "reaching across the aisle." This will challenge any advantage Senator Obama might have regarding his theme of unity and bipartisanship, making it a tight race that I think Senator McCain will win (not saying I'll vote for him, just that he'll probably win). But that's not necessarily the end of the world. Here's why:
President Bush, by his own admission, has been treading water in Iraq. The surge was designed to calm things down in Baghdad long enough that the Decider could pass his fuck-up on to the next administration, who will have their hands full figuring out how to clean up the mess. Just like Lyndon Johnson's war became Richard Nixon's in 1968, this war will become the next President's.
At the same time, the Administration (with the help of the Federal Reserve) has been playing a game of field position with the economy in an attempt to punt the coming recession into 2009.
If it's Senator Obama's job to clean this up starting in 2009, it likely means four-years-and-out for the Democrats as the Republicans sweep back into the White House and Congress by blaming Democrats for a Republican mess. And don't count on the political press to look back farther than four years (that is, unless Bill Clinton's dick is involved). This will be even more likely if the Democrats fail to increase their razor-thin majorities in Congress, as the Republicans will obstruct any and all meaningful legislation.
On the other hand, if Senator McCain rides a bipartisan promise to the White House, he inherits this mess with what will probably be a Democratic Congress. If, by some miracle, this mess is all cleaned up by 2012, McCain runs again and wins. The Democrats in Congress will share in this success and hold on to at least one house. If this mess is not be cleaned up by 2012, the Democratic candidate for president runs on McCain's failures, and probably wins.
Plus, as Dan Savage pointed out yesterday on Slog, a President McCain has every reason to just sit back and watch as a Democratic Congress investigates the hell out of the last seven years of misrule. I'm sure I'm not the only person who would frame Dick Cheney's mug shot and hang it over the mantle. Too bad he'll probably flee to Dubai once he's out of office.
But, whatever. I could be wrong. I'm just some chump with access to the internets, after all.
posted by poverty at 2:24 PM
1 Comments:
I really hope you're wrong. Really, really, really.
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